The Rugby League Eye Test: Set Restarts, Expected Points, and the New Normal
The NRL season has kicked off with a bang, and the early rounds have already set a new standard for set restarts and expected points. With 22 more set restarts than penalties in Round 2, 2026, the league is witnessing a significant shift in the game's dynamics.
The author, an expert analyst, delves into the implications of this change, exploring the relationship between set restarts, expected points, and the overall performance of teams. They argue that the increase in set restarts is not just a statistical anomaly but a reflection of broader trends in the game.
One of the key insights is the impact of set restarts on the margin of victory. The author notes that the high number of set restarts is leading to more points being scored, with an average of over 50 points per game in the opening rounds. This is a significant departure from the much-maligned 2021 season, which saw fewer points and one-sided beatdowns.
The author also highlights the role of set restarts in amplifying the margin between teams. They argue that the restarts are not causing the poor defensive reads or errors, but rather exaggerating the existing differences between teams. This is particularly evident in the Parramatta v Brisbane game, where the set restarts contributed to a more lopsided result than the actual defensive errors.
The analysis also extends to the impact of set restarts on the distribution of expected points. The author notes that the increase in set restarts is leading to more high-value field position possession, which is then converted into points. This is evident in the Broncos v Eels game, where Brisbane accrued almost 8 expected points of field position early but only came away with two tries.
The author also discusses the impact of set restarts on the style of play. They argue that the high number of set restarts is leading to more attacking shootouts, with both teams piling on points. This is a significant shift from the more defensive, one-sided games of the past.
In conclusion, the author concludes that the new normal in the NRL is a high-scoring, attacking style of play, with set restarts playing a significant role in shaping the outcome of games. They encourage readers to embrace this change and enjoy the entertainment value it brings to the sport.
